1 Department of Forestry, Fire, & Rangeland Management, California State Polytechnic University, Humboldt, Arcata, CA, 95521, USA.
2 Department of Biology, Concordia University, Montréal, QC, H4B 1R6, Canada.
3 Department of Botany and Biodiversity Research Centre, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, V6T 1Z4, Canada.

Serotiny is an adaptive trait that allows certain woody plants to persist in stand-replacing fire regimes. However, the mechanisms by which serotinous cones avoid seed necrosis and nonserotinous species persist in landscapes with short fire cycles and serotinous competitors remain poorly understood. To investigate whether ovulate cone traits that enhance seed survival differ between serotinous and nonserotinous species, we examined cone traits in 24 species within Pinaceae and Cupressaceae based on physical measurements and cone heating simulations using a computational fluid dynamics model. Fire-relevant cone traits were largely similar between cone types; those that differed (e.g. density and moisture) conferred little seed survival advantage under simulated fire. The most important traits influencing seed survival were cone size and seed depth within the cone, which was found to be an allometric function of cone mass for both cone types. Thus, nonserotinous cones should not suffer significantly greater seed necrosis than serotinous cones of equal size. Closed nonserotinous cones containing mature seeds may achieve substantial regeneration after fire if they are sufficiently large relative to fire duration and temperature. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive study of the effects of fire-relevant cone traits on conifer regeneration supported by physics-based fire simulation.