1 Ouranos Inc, 550 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, Tour Ouest 19e étage, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada. yann.chavaillaz@gmail.com.
2 Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 boulevard de Maisonneuve Ouest, Montréal, QC, H3G 1M8, Canada. yann.chavaillaz@gmail.com.
3 Ouranos Inc, 550 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, Tour Ouest 19e étage, Montréal, QC, H3A 1B9, Canada.
4 Finnish Meteorological Institute, Climate System Research, P.O. Box 503, 00101, Helsinki, Finland.
5 Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue, 445 Boulevard de l'Université, Rouyn-Noranda, QC, J9X 5E4, Canada.
6 Simon Fraser University, Department of Geography, 8888 University Drive, Burnaby, BC, V5A 1S6, Canada.
7 Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel (GEOMAR), Düsternbrooker Weg 20, Kiel, D-24105, Germany.
8 Department of Geography, Planning and Environment, Concordia University, 1455 boulevard de Maisonneuve Ouest, Montréal, QC, H3G 1M8, Canada.

Exposure to excessive heat and impacts on labour productivity linked to cumulative CO2 emissions.

Sci Rep. 2019 Sep 23;9(1):13711

Authors: Chavaillaz Y, Roy P, Partanen AI, Da Silva L, Bresson É, Mengis N, Chaumont D, Matthews HD

Abstract

Cumulative CO2 emissions are a robust predictor of mean temperature increase. However, many societal impacts are driven by exposure to extreme weather conditions. Here, we show that cumulative emissions can be robustly linked to regional changes of a heat exposure indicator, as well as the resulting socioeconomic impacts associated with labour productivity loss in vulnerable economic sectors. We estimate historical and future increases in heat exposure using simulations from eight Earth System Models. Both the global intensity and spatial pattern of heat exposure evolve linearly with cumulative emissions across scenarios (1% CO2, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The pattern of heat exposure at a given level of global temperature increase is strongly affected by non-CO2 forcing. Global non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions amplify heat exposure, while high local emissions of aerosols could moderate exposure. Considering CO2 forcing only, we commit ourselves to an additional annual loss of labour productivity of about 2% of total GDP per unit of trillion tonne of carbon emitted. This loss doubles when adding non-CO2 forcing of the RCP8.5 scenario. This represents an additional economic loss of about 4,400?G$ every year (i.e. 0.59 $/tCO2), varying across countries with generally higher impact in lower-income countries.

PMID: 31548555 [PubMed - in process]